The Buzz of Northwest Georgia:
>Economic Roundtable/What to expect in 2009: Natalie Simms interviews four local business leaders on what's ahead here in 2009:
-Shorter professor Gina McDaniel
-Wachovia Securities' Michael Crego
-Board of realtors president Graham Dixon
-Heather Seckman, chamber's economic development director
>Table Talk: A look at what's ahead for America's restaurants
>3-Dot Buzz: WLAQ, The Ridge webcast morning shows as well as sports
>Peaks & Valleys: Special NAIA edition. Plus: The Christmas edition
Weather Center/ Brought to you by Roman Court
-Wind chill: 8 degrees!
Welcome to winter, Northwest Georgia style. at 7 this morning, it was 18 in Rome but thanks to winds of 8 mph, it felt more like 8 degrees. Today: high of 37, low tonight of 19.
-Christmas Day: 60 percent chance of rain, high of 64.> WeatherCenter
NAIA championship report/ Brought to you by Printworks
-How the home papers covered the game> Football Report
-Peaks & Valleys: The NAIA game edition> Buzz
Norman Arey's Sports Roundtable / brought to you by Riverside Toyota
-Gators' next QB now playing at Miami? Auburn pays back Iowa State for coach theft. For more, click Arey
The NAIA Football Report/ brought to you by PrintWorks
-Final updates on the Sioux Falls Cougars' win over Carroll College> Football Report
Sports updates
-Ingle, Moore returning to coach Rome Braves in 2009> Sports
-Former Rome Braves manager Rocket Wheeler named minor league manager of the year> Sports
Downtown Headlines
-Bryan Mullins of Mullinsmania.com on what's ahead this week> Downtown
ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE: Our economy in 2009
By Natalie Simms
Uncertainty confronts Northwest Georgia as we begin a new year. Our economy continues to spiral as job losses increase, spending decreases and credit freezes. With national and state predictions calling for a bleak 2009, how do local business leaders see Northwest Georgia fairing? We spoke with representatives from four business sectors in our area to find out what they see in 2009 and a year from now.
How does the January-March quarter look for Northwest Georgia?
Gina McDaniel, Economics Professor, Shorter College: "While the Federal 
Reserve decided to set a range instead of a set level for the fed funds rate to record low levels, the economy will continue to be bleak for all of 2009. While certain sectors may begin to improve, the consumer will remain skeptical. The number of job losses, stock losses, credit market volatility and the slow housing market will plague our economy. I believe the corporate job losses will continue to mount and we will see other 'small' signs of weakness such as the increased number of free lunch programs, food stamp applications, less vehicle miles traveled and local bankruptcy courts more crowded."
Heather Seckman, Director of Economic Development, Greater Rome Chamber of Commerce:"I typically avoid predictions because even the most seasoned professionals get it wrong. However, being the optimist that I am, I am very hopeful for a successful 2009."
Michael Crego, Senior Vice President, Wachovia Securities, Rome: "It appears that the first quarter will probably show more softness in the local economy as Northwest Georgia will be absorbing job losses. Despite these challenges, our economy is still blessed with strong bases in healthcare and education."
Graham Dixon, President of the Greater Rome Board of Realtors, Lambert, Dixon & Tate Real Estate: "2008 has been a challenging year for the real estate market, not only in Northwest Georgia but also in the entire nation. The tightening of the credit market has greatly affected the ability of many purchasers to secure financing. While we may be able to find a buyer for a property, they may not necessarily be able to obtain a loan that they would have easily qualified for a year ago. Even with these challenges, I anticipate the early part of 2009 to be a time period where we see a rebound occur as interest rates are extremely low and the motivation of sellers is quite high. From a buyer's perspective, now through the middle of 2009 should be exactly the time to make a purchase."
What will be the first definitive signs of a turnaround?
McDaniel, Shorter: "A turnaround in the housing market and a sustained surge in consumer spending. The psychology of fear has gripped the consumer and until that changes, we will remain in an economic slowdown. The fed has stated they will continue to keep rates low but the consumer is still fearful. That confidence level will take time to restore."
Seckman, chamber: "A good sign of a turnaround would be capital investments, job creation, lower unemployment rates, expansions and new announcements."
Crego, investments: "Given the nature of the downturn, I would look for a plateau in unemployment and the housing market. Those areas will need to stabilize before consumer confidence recovers. In addition, if oil prices can stay down, it would certainly help the cause."
Dixon, real estate: "Real estate is a commodity of sorts, and is affected by the rules of supply and demand just like all other commodities. When the supply of available homes falls below the demand, prices will naturally increase. Because many buyers have been fearful of purchasing or perhaps 'waiting for the bottom,' there is a pent up demand situation building. People like to look at houses and people like to buy new houses. At some point, desire will kick in and overtake fear. When individuals start seeing a drop in the number of 'For Sale' signs in their neighborhood, the sign will be quite clear. From a statistical standpoint, I think the sign will be when we have an increase in the average sales price of homes along with an increase in the total number of sales for a given period."
What is your advice to clients in the short-term and long-term?
McDaniel, professor: "In past recessions, small businesses have increased through laid-off workers starting a new career path. However, if the credit markets remain tight, this will be virtually impossible. In addition, they will have a stronger application pool to choose from as more unemployed individuals will be searching for work. I believe businesses will remain frugal with their inventory and not over extend themselves. The service sector will remain stronger because consumers are choosing to 'repair' than to buy new."
Seckman, chamber: "My advice to business owners would be to cut where possible, be conservative and shop locally in Floyd County. Shopping locally saves gas and keeps dollars here."
Crego, investments: "For short-term investors, I recommend a very conservative 
course of action. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the economy and financial markets at this time. Consequently, I take the 'better safe than sorry' approach. For long-term investors, I suggest a diversified investment portfolio that includes exposure to stocks, bonds, certificates of deposit, real estate and cash equivalents. The asset allocation would be dependent on someone's financial situation, risk tolerance, age, budgetary needs and other factors. However, all investors should stay diversified. For long-term investors, there are some excellent opportunities in the stock market at this time. However, stocks should be limited to a certain percentage of someone's assets and invested with patience and realistic expectations."
Dixon, real estate: "To sellers, price your home at or below the true market value. It might be hard to stomach that the current market value might be less than what they paid for it a year or two ago but so is their GM stock. If you need to sell, pricing the home below market value can actually attract more interest and spur a bidding war where the price is actually escalated above the current market value. To buyers, lock in an interest rate and buy right now. With 30-year fixed rates in the 4s (annual interest rate), it's incredibly cheap to borrow money. Additionally, sellers are reading the same newspapers the buyers are and are equally aware that it's a challenging market. A seller who is motivated and informed knows they may not get what they'd like for the property but if a willing and able buyer is genuinely interested, it's in their best interest to work with them and pursue a potential sale."
By Jan. 1, 2010, how will our markets look?
McDaniel, professor: "I can't see us bottoming out until sometime in 2010. If mortgage rates are lower and consumers can purchase a new home, that will stimulate growth. In addition, if consumers refinance their existing mortgage, they will have additional funds to pay their debt down and to spend. The job market will need to improve. Consumers need to see stabilization in the job market in order to begin the 'spending' cycle again."
Seckman, chamber: "Again, I am very hopeful for a successful future."
Crego, investments: "What I have learned through the years is that the future cannot be predicted, as there are too many variables that come into play. We do know that the current trends reflect our first recession in several years. We also know that economic cycles do not last forever and at some point, recovery begins. I am hopeful that we will see that in 2009 but it is impossible to predict the timing and strength of a recovery."
Dixon, real estate: "I believe it will be back to normal. The days of 10-15 percent appreciation per year are long over but we'll likely see a return to normal appreciation ranges of 2-3 percent annually. I anticipate a decrease in average sales price for 2008 followed by a stabilizing year trending upward in 2009. By 2010, most of the factors that have affected us in 2008 should be long since resolved and the normal trends should return."
Photos courtesy of Mills Fitzner, Greater Rome Chamber of Commerce and Shorter College.
Table Talk: 2009 national restaurant forecast a bit tough to digest
There's one more outlook on today's menu, this one being the National Restaurant Association's 2009 Restaurant Industry Forecast. Given Northwest Georgia's interest in dining out, we share some of the predictions for the next 12 months:
-Sales will reach $566 billion in 2009, "with the industry employing 13 million individuals in 945,000 restaurant-and-foodservice outlets nationwide. While overall sales will rise by 2.5 percent, the NRA predicts a 1 percent decline overall based, in part, on inflation.
-About half of your food budget will be spent in restaurants.
-Full-service restaurants will see sales grow by 1 percent; quick-service restaurants will see a 4 percent gain. "Eating-and-drinking" sites will grow by 2.2 percent.
-Consumer trends: "Association research shows that Americans today are looking for restaurants that deliver value, convenience and healthier options. Surveys of restaurant operators, customers and chefs indicate that restauranteurs will sharpen their appeal in the coming year by reaching out to health-conscious guests as well as to the growing number of diners who are interested in how and where their food was produced. Among top trends restauranteurs see for 2009 are an expanded focus on value, healthy options in kids' meals, locally sourced items and green initiatives."
>For more: Check the entire forecast by clicking NRA
>More table talk: Ruby Tuesday, which has stores in Cartersville and Calhoun and flirted with a site at RiverWalk, has plans to close more than 70 stores starting next year. No sites have been named as yet> Ruby
Three-Dot Buzz . . . :
WLAQ, The Ridge now web casting morning shows: You can now take two local radio shows from your car to your desk top each weekday morning. The morning shows from both Talk Radio WLAQ AM 1410 and 95.7 FM The Ridge starting today. Elizabeth Davis is on the AM dial while Matt Davis has the FM broadcast. The stations recently added Web sites as well.WLAQ and The Ridge have been providing Webcasts of sports programming, including the Rome Braves, in recent years as well . . .
More Turner McCall frontage on the market: The Toles, Temple & Wright sign is now in front of the former Midas shop just up from Verizon Wireless and across from DLS Financial Center. It joins the former car dealership next door and the recent home of Johnny Carino's near Village Theatres as "on the market." Those are prime spots -- with prime dollars attached -- but given the traffic up and down Turner McCall each day, something has to be stirring. One example of a new spin on existing sites: Parker FiberNet's office in the 700 block of Broad. . .
New rumbles in downtown Rome: Ever-changing Broad Street is due for another smaller update or two but now comes word of a little tweaking that could ruin at least one deal. We'll hopefully have more on this one by the first of the year . . .
PEAKS & VALLEYS: NAIA Championship Game Edition
Peak to the organizing and host committees, and Shorter staff: Bob Berry, Bill Peterson, Roger Smith, Grant Kersey, Dawn Tolbert, Jim O'Hara, Jackie Moreland and many others did a wonderful job preparing--and executing--a national championship event. They'll do it again in 2009--and hopefully for many more years to come. We think NAIA officials will agree: It doesn't get any better than this.
Peak to the traveling fans and those who greeted them: From a Friday lunch at IHOP to visits to Broad and more, you could see the colors of the Fighting Saints and Cougars all over town. Thursday, Friday and Saturday. They're as rabid about football in their home states as we are in the SEC and ACC. It also was great to see local merchants and restaurant staff being as welcoming as they were.
Valley to the weather: From the flight-delaying snowstorms to the soggy but warm greetings in Northwest Georgia, it wasn't a plus in terms of meteorology. But field conditions sure beat the mud bog that was the 2007 championship a year ago. As Sioux Falls coach Kalen DeBoer said at Friday's banquet: "It was negative 20 today in South Dakota and 70 degrees here. I say bring on the rain!"
Peak to the character of the players: Again and again, we've heard what a positive impact the players from Carroll College and Sioux Falls had on the students they visited at area schools. The players gave autographs, talked about what it means to be a football player, college student and person of character, and more.
PEAKS & VALLEYS: The Christmas edition
Peak to the Rome Braves, South 107 and Rome Cleaners: The annual coat drive saw "well over 200 coats" delivered to the Floyd County Baptist Association for distribution for those in need this winter. The timing couldn't be better as another blast of arctic air sweeps in.
Chaplain Billy Murdock (second from right), Shannon Wholeness Church Pastor Randy Jiles (third from left), Redmond CEO Brenda Waltz (front row on the right) and the Redmond accounting department show off gifts collected for a Christmas family
Peak to Redmond Regional Medical Center: Thanks to the direction of Redmond Regional chaplain Billy Murdock, the medical center adopted more than 75 families in need this Christmas season. "Christmas Families" saw every department within the medical center adopt a family and provide clothes, toys and other wishes this Christmas season. Redmond also hosted a Toys for Tots drive filling several boxes with employee and community donations as well as collected canned goods for the Garden Lakes Food Pantry and participated Northwest Georgia Regional's annual gift drive, filling an entire SUV with clothes, games and daily necessities for patients who often receive little or nothing during the holidays. "We have the most giving group of people I have ever seen," Murdock said. "This hospital is just amazing and I am blown away every year by what they do."
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