Economic improvements are continuing at a very slow pace, and consumer surveys show active concern and pessimism over the rate of economic recovery. The measure of economic activity, real gross domestic product, is expected to increase for the fourth quarter of 2011 by 1.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. While 1.5 percent growth is still slow, it is a slight increase over the expected 1.3 percent fourth quarter growth predicted one month ago and the primary factor expected to drive this year's modest increase in year-end holiday travel.
"AAA is happy to learn so many Americans plan to travel this holiday season, contributing to the second-highest year-end holiday travel volume in the past decade. This year's travel forecast is second to the 2006-2007 holiday season when more than 93.6 million Americans traveled," said Brent Hubele, vice president, AAA Travel, The Auto Club Group. "This represents healthy growth following the 1.3 percent increase in 2010 holiday travel and is a notable milestone in the travel industry's recovery."
Almost three in five intending travelers (59%) said the economy has either no impact on their travel plans or they feel like things have improved for them. The remaining 41 percent state an intention to scale back travel plans due to economic concerns. Last year, 67 percent of intending travelers stated their travel plans were not impacted by the economic conditions at that time. Given current economic conditions, a majority of travelers reporting no economic impact on their travel plans is a positive sign for the travel industry and another reminder of just how important traveling is to Americans.
| State and U.S. | Projected Total | Auto Travelers | Air Travelers | Other (Bus/Train) |
| Florida | 4,795,446 (1.2% ↑) | 4,350,100 (1.8% ↑) | 261,487 (-11% ↓) | 183,859 (6.7% ↑) |
| Georgia | 2,555,910 (0.5% ↑) | 2,318,437 (1.1% ↑) | 139,707 (-11.5% ↓) | 97,765 (5.9% ↑) |
| Tennessee | 2,015,739 (1.6% ↑) | 1,897,359 (1.9% ↑) | 54,463 (-7.5% ↓) | 63,917 (1.1% ↑) |
| Total U.S. | 91.9 million (1.4% ↑) | 83.6 million (2.1% ↑) | 5.4 million (-9.7%↓) | 2.9 million (4.2% ↑) |
Automobile is top transportation choice, increases 2.1 percent
Approximately 83.6 million people (91% of holiday travelers) plan to take to the nation's roadways this year-end holiday travel season, a 2.1 percent increase compared to 2010-11 when the number of auto travelers totaled 81.9 million. This year's projected automobile travel volume is the second highest in the past decade and only 100,000 less than the 2006-07 auto travel peak of 83.7 million. Automobile travel remains the preferred choice of transportation for holiday travelers as nearly 27 percent of the total U.S. population will hit the road.
The current national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is approximately $3.26 per gallon, about 29 cents more than one year ago. However, the national average price is about 72 cents less than this year's peak price of $3.98 on May 5. To find state and metro gas price averages visit AAA's Fuel Gauge Report.
Air travel down nearly 10 percent
About 5.4 million leisure travelers (6% of holiday travelers) will fly during the year-end holiday travel period, a 9.7 percent decrease from 2010-11. This year's air travel volume is the seventh lowest in the past 10 years as nearly two million fewer year-end holiday travelers are expected to fly than did during the decade's air travel peak in 2002-03 when 7.3 million Americans flew to their travel destination. Jet fuel costs and capacity cuts continue to impact holiday air travel. According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index, year-end holiday airfares are expected to be 21 percent higher than last year with an average lowest round-trip rate of $210 for the top 40 U.S. air routes.
Train, bus, other modes of travel increases 4.2 percent
Other modes of travel (bus, trains, watercraft, multi-modal travel) will make up the remaining three percent of the total person-trips, with 2.9 million people expected to travel by these modes—4.2 percent higher than 2010-11. Economic conditions dictate that some Americans who would otherwise travel by air or automobile will now travel by these alternative modes of transportation.
Hotel rates increase; car rental rates decrease
According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index, hotel rates for AAA Three Diamond or mid-range lodgings are expected to increase a modest one percent from last year with travelers spending an average of $126 per night compared to $125 one year ago. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond hotels can expect to pay four percent more at an average cost of $92 per night, up from $88 last year. Daily car rental rates are $40 on average, a 21 percent decrease from one year ago and the lowest seen in the past five years. As the demand for used cars fluctuates or car manufacturers offer fewer opportunities for buying back fleets it can become harder for car rental companies to shrink their fleet to meet demand. With a larger pool of cars in the market, car rental companies must lower pricing to match supply and demand.
Travel distance decreases; median spending increases
According to a survey of traveler intentions, the average distance traveled by Americans during the year-end holiday travel season is expected to be 726 miles, a decline from 2010-11 when travelers planned to log an average of 1,052 miles. Propelling the reduction in expected travel miles is the 9.7 percent decline in air travel and indications that many air travelers are choosing shorter-distance flights. The percentage of expected trips with a round trip distance above 1,500 miles decreased from 23 percent last year to 17 percent this year. Median spending is expected to be $718, which is a three percent increase from $694 last year. Fuel and transportation costs combine to consume the largest share of holiday spending (32%), followed by shopping and food and beverages (tied at 19%). Other expenditures include accommodations (15%), entertainment and recreation (12%), and other costs (4%).
Year-End Holiday Travel Tips
More Americans travel during the year-end holiday season than during any other holiday period throughout the year. Our nation's roadways and airports will be busier than normal, so holiday travelers should be sure to pack more patience.
AAA offers these important travel tips to help everyone have an enjoyable and safe year-end holiday season:
- Plan ahead. Use a travel planning tool like AAA's TripTik Travel Planner available at AAA.com to help identify the best driving routes, rest stops, and shop the latest gas prices. Our nation's highways will be crowded with both holiday travelers and day-trippers. Continuously monitor weather conditions along your route and be prepared with contingency plans. Doing your homework could save valuable time, fuel costs, and improve travel safety.
- Arrive early. Airports will be crowded and security steps may be intensified so allow additional time at your departure airport. For domestic flights, arrive at least two hours prior to your departure and arrive at least three hours early for international flights. Busier airports may require even earlier arrival times. Monitor weather conditions closely, and before leaving home, visit your airline's website for updates about the status of your flight.
- Avoid the 3 Deadly D's of Driving:
- Drunk or Drugged Driving. Remember that impairment begins with the first sip of alcohol. A designated driver should be alcohol-free, not merely the person in your party who has consumed the least amount of alcohol. Many medications have side effects that cause impairment, so read medication labels thoroughly.
- Drowsy Driving. Get seven to nine hours of sleep before driving. Take a break every 100 miles or two hours. Do not drive during hours when you routinely sleep. If you feel tired while driving, pull over to a safe location and take a 20- to 30-minute nap.
- Distracted Driving. It is the driver's responsibility to keep eyes, mind and body fully focused on the task of driving. Assign a passenger to be the designated texter, talker, and navigator. If traveling alone, pull over to a safe location to use your cell phone or adjust your navigation device, then proceed on your trip distraction free. Child and pet passengers can be distractions to drivers, so allow another adult passenger to interact with these family members.
Ninety AAA eTourBook Guides now available for members to download
For year-end vacation planning, members can download AAA's free digital eTourBook guides for smartphones and ereader devices. Refreshed continuously with new information, each digital guide available for download highlights a top North American travel destination, complete with AAA Editor's Picks, listings for AAA Approved and Diamond Rated hotels and restaurants, attractions, events and nightlife and other proprietary information available only through AAA. Top downloads for 2011 from AAA.com/ebooks include Orlando, New York City, Washington, D.C., San Francisco and Las Vegas.
Mobile App helps travelers find directions, fuel prices and more on the go
Travelers concerned about how fuel prices will impact their travel budget can use the free,
AAA's projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Global Insight. The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. The Auto Club Group (ACG) is the second largest AAA club in North America. ACG and its affiliates provide membership, travel, insurance and financial services offerings to approximately 8.5 million members across 11 states and two U.S. territories including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; most of Illinois, Minnesota and Tennessee; and a portion of Indiana. ACG belongs to the national AAA federation with nearly 53 million members in the United States and Canada and whose mission includes protecting and advancing freedom of mobility and improving traffic safety.
AAA Auto Club South, 1515 N West Shore Blvd, Tampa, FL 33607-4505 United States
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